A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
